Developing A Resilient Society

As we navigate life, we’ve internalised the belief that growth and expansion are natural and essential. Our leaders often emphasise the importance of growth as a justification for their policies and decisions. However, a growing awareness has dawned upon us—the reality of infinite growth on a finite planet is simply not feasible. It’s increasingly evident that our current systems and structures are inadequate. This realisation underscores the need to reassess our priorities and urgently develop sustainable solutions that prioritise the well-being of all.

SYSTEMS ARE FAILING

In 1972, two significant publications issued profound warnings about the impending ecological collapse we are currently witnessing.

In 1972, two significant publications issued profound warnings about the impending ecological collapse we are currently witnessing.

“If the present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.”

Further studies have since found actual data has followed predicted trends for the Business As Usual, BAU scenario and confirmed its conclusions.

“Only One World: An Awakening” was the first part of A Special Report published in the September 1972 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The opening paragraph of the preamble reads:

“The United Nations Conference on the Human Environment at Stockholm last June was an event of historic proportions. It marked the begining of a transition in the attitudes of most of the human race toward the future uses of the environment. Despite ideological, political, economic or religious differences, the delegates of 114 nations at the Conference were able to agree on an Action Plan and a Declaration of Principles based on the common realisation that the Earth is a closed, ecological system and man continues to modify it only at his peril.”

Since the reports were published in 1972, it has been evident that our leadership and systems have been unable to make the changes necessary for ecological and economic stability and a sustainable future. Many leaders are calling for more aspects of our lives to move onto digital platforms. Considering the following failures, believing it is a good idea is difficult.

• International meetings, including 27 COP meetings, have failed to prevent climate change. The CO2 emissions have continued to increase, apparently unaffected.

• An “Assessment of The Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels“, prepared by Simon Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland, concludes: “Current thinking is that global industrial businesses will replace a complex industrial ecosystem that took more than a century to build. The current system was built with the support of the highest calorifically dense source of energy the world has ever known (oil), in cheap abundant quantities, with easily available credit, and seemingly unlimited mineral resources. This replacement is hoped to be done at a time when there is comparatively very expensive energy, a fragile finance system saturated in debt, not enough minerals, and an unprecedented world population, embedded in a deteriorating natural environment.” (link to slide summary)
• The economic theories that guided us through the 20th century have proven to be inadequate and often misguided.
• The COVID-19 pandemic starkly revealed the vulnerability and fragility of our civilisation.
• This month, July 2024, businesses worldwide experienced severe disruptions due to a global technology outage caused by a software update from cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike. Airlines, healthcare, banks, restaurants and other services struggled to recover as they manually updated their systems and worked to overcome the resulting challenges. This event showed how vulnerable the global economy is to software dependencies and the widespread impact that technological failures can have.

This continued failure of our systems to deliver is particularly concerning when we consider the catastrophic risks on the horizon. If we are unable to deal with these difficulties over a prolonged period of time, how will we deal with a sudden catastrophe like the Carrington Event of 1859?

OIL

There has been a significant global effort to invest in developing alternative energy sources to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels. However, we often overlook that hydrocarbons are crucial in various applications, including transportation, construction, clothing, household goods, medicine, furniture, electronics, and agriculture. There are no viable alternatives for many of these essential products and processes. Still, there is little effort to develop options.

Source: https://sweetcrudereports.com/global-conventional-discoveries-hit-record-low/

The world’s oil reserves are finite, and oil extraction is becoming increasingly challenging and costly. As a result, the prices of oil and its by-products are likely to rise, impacting various industries that rely on hydrocarbons. We can see the implications of this beyond energy, such as fertilisers and food supplies.

CHALLENGE

The challenge we face in creating a resilient society is that we have spent many generations building systems that prioritise efficiency. However, these systems are fragile and rely heavily on oil, which is becoming increasingly harder to obtain. To address this, we must shift towards systems requiring less energy. Such a transition will be much easier while oil is still abundant.

Our current system is ill-prepared for this transition. Marcos Otero Vega wrote in the conclusion of an article published in 2023: “We will have to adapt and transition to a less energy-intensive society.” It exhibits characteristics of a living organism, as noted by Adam Smith when he referred to the “invisible hand” of the market. Like a living organism, it will do whatever it takes to survive, which is evident in the resistance to addressing climate change. And like a hostile predator, the markets do not care about the welfare of life. Instead of fundamentally changing our behaviour, we often opt for superficial solutions, such as switching from gasoline-powered to electric vehicles, which still require roads, plastics, and electricity. There is still an oil dependency.

FOCUS ON THE LOCAL

To build resilience, we should focus on establishing small, self-sufficient communities. These communities should have all the necessary resources nearby; transport will become more expensive as oil becomes scarce. For instance, instead of shipping food by truck, we should grow it locally, perhaps even in our own yards. Furthermore, having access to local water sources and being able to walk to essential services like healthcare and education would further strengthen our resilience.

Because many live in cities today, transitioning to this model will be challenging or unfeasible for most. Nonetheless, the more we invest in such changes, the better prepared we will be to confront future challenges.

It is unlikely that governments will take the necessary actions. Only a few people perceive the urgency because we don’t know when an event will occur. However, the gradual decline in Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROE) is evident in the economies and is why prices are rising while wages are not.

Because the problem is so deep, protesting is unlikely to impact anything. It has not prevented climate change. We have to make changes at home with our neighbours, and we hope many people near us will follow.

In conclusion, it’s important to remember that we are facing an uncertain future. While we do not know what catastrophes lie ahead, we do know that our oil reserves are depleting. As supplies dwindle, prices will inevitably soar. Therefore, it’s in our best interest to start making changes to better cope with the inevitable cost rises. As the saying goes, it’s better to leave oil before oil leaves us.