The natural world demonstrates many cycles, such as climate, economic patterns, and solar cycles, each unfolding over its own timeframe. The shift from one stage to the next, from one cycle to the next, typically involves a period of change, destruction, and rebirth. Sometimes, the transition is so subtle and hidden that it’s difficult to believe what came before could lead to what we observe after the transition. Nature provides many examples, but perhaps the most astonishing is the transformation of a caterpillar into a butterfly, as it must break down its former self to emerge as a butterfly and take flight. Are we currently going through a similar transformation?
Climatic Cycle
One of the most enlightening sources of information about the climatic cycle is the layers of geological sediment, rock, ice, and seabed sediment. Through meticulous sampling, scientists have unlocked the secrets these layers hold. For instance, we have gleaned invaluable insights from 420,000 layers of ice from Lake Vostok in Antarctica. Each year, a new layer of sediment is formed, offering a wealth of data about the past.
Analysis of these samples shows that peaks in global temperatures are followed, not preceded by peaks in CO2 levels. This suggests that greenhouse gases, especially CO2, may not cause the increased global temperatures we are observing. This relationship is contrary to common belief. The misunderstanding seems to be that we were looking at the wrong data over a period that was too short.
While I may have reservations about our current understanding of climate science, I wholeheartedly endorse the proposed actions to combat climate change. These measures, if implemented, hold the promise of a brighter, healthier future for our planet.
The research of Serbian scientist Milutin Milankovic (1879-1958) provides further insights. Initially dismissed, Milankovic’s theory has gained popularity as it aligns with much of the data we are now observing. Milankovic observed changes in the Earth’s movements through space. He recognized that as Earth orbits the Sun, it tilts and wobbles in three significant cycles, now known as the Milankovic cycles.
* Eccentricity measures how much the orbit of the Earth around the Sun deviates from being circular. It’s actually an ellipse, and its size changes over a cycle of about 100,000 years due to the gravitational pull of Jupiter and Saturn.
* Tilt or Obliquity measures the planet’s axial tilt, which varies between 22.1° and 24.5° over a cycle of about 41,000 years. The angle is currently decreasing, leading to a narrowing difference in seasons: winters becoming warmer and summers becoming slightly cooler.
* Precession of the equinoxes, also known as the Great Year, is the observable phenomena of the rotation of the heavens, a cycle that spans a period of approximately 25,800 years. It is a long period of time that encompasses many shorter cycles. During this time, the constellations appear to slowly rotate around the Earth, taking turns at rising behind the rising Sun on the vernal equinox.
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Our examination of these cycles, particularly when two peaks coincide, reveals a warming period for our planet. This is not mere speculation but a fact confirmed by scientific data obtained from ice cores. When we consider this cycle in conjunction with greenhouse gases, we find that the increase in gases follows the rise in temperature. It’s important to note that CO2 did not initiate the warming from past ice ages, but it did amplify it. Approximately 90% of the global warming followed the CO2 increase. The warming, however, did start first. These findings, backed by the rigorous analysis of ice core data, were published in peer-reviewed papers (e.g. “Vostok ice core: climatic response to CO2 and orbital forcing changes over last climatic cycle.” Nature 329, 414-418 (October 1987).
Milankovitch’s study was instrumental in understanding the impact of Earth’s movements on climate change. His research focused on the changes in Earth’s movements, which alter the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. This change in radiation, known as solar forcing, was a key area of Milankovitch’s work. He particularly emphasized the changes experienced at 65° north, a latitude with a significant landmass. This is crucial as land masses respond to temperature changes more rapidly than oceans due to the mixing of surface and deep water and the lower volumetric heat capacity of soil compared to water.
Economic Cycles
In the early 20th century, economist Nikolai Kondratiev identified economic cycles lasting about 66 years, which he likened to the four seasons: spring, summer, autumn, and winter. This insightful theory has proven to be a valuable tool in understanding economic cycles, enriching our knowledge and understanding of past economic performance starting from 1789.
Over the years, the Kondratiev Wave theory has been refined and proven to be a valuable tool in understanding economic cycles. It divides these cycles into four distinct phases: Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter.
Spring is marked by increased optimism, technical innovation, improved productivity, and better market conditions. This often leads to increased consumer spending and investment, fostering a sense of economic growth and prosperity.
During Summer, society enjoys the benefits of years of economic growth, which can lead to excesses.
Autumn is characterized by a change in outlook and the realization that the good times are not sustainable. This leads to belt-tightening and market contraction.
Winter, the final phase, is a time of economic depression, troubled financial systems, high levels of bankruptcy, and unemployment. However, this phase is not without hope. It is often described as a period of ‘cleansing’ for the economy, where excessive debt and other imbalances are ‘washed out ‘, allowing for a fresh start and the potential for new growth.
Based on the theory, we are currently in the winter phase, which began in 2000 around the time of the NASDAQ/tech crash. Since most winters in the Kondratiev cycle last 20 years, we might be moving into the spring phase. However, due to the significant changes happening in whole systems, this winter phase might last longer as things are being recalibrated.
Human Activity During Solar Cycles
According to researchers, human activity and solar cycles seem to follow similar patterns. It’s important to note that scientists do not suggest that the Sun is causing these effects. Instead, they believe that natural conditions create an environment where a particular response is more likely. In some environments, people tend to be more aggressive, while in others, they are more willing to cooperate.
Author Gregg Braden frequently writes about this topic. However, these observations date back to 1918 when Alexander Chizhevsky (1867-1964) presented his ideas in a doctoral dissertation titled “Analysis of Periodicity in the Worldwide Process”, which was published a few years later as “Physical Factors of the Historical Process.”
Solar activity is also related to what is known as The Schumann Resonance, a global electromagnetic resonance phenomenon named after physicist Winfried Otto Schumann. He mathematically predicted it in 1952. This phenomenon occurs because the space between the Earth’s surface and the conductive ionosphere acts as a closed waveguide, a structure that can trap and guide electromagnetic waves, retaining energy. The limited dimensions of the Earth cause this waveguide to act as a resonant cavity, a structure that can store and amplify electromagnetic waves for electromagnetic waves in the Extremely Low Frequency (ELF) band. The cavity is naturally excited by electric currents in lightning.
While some may consider it speculative or new-age science, many believe that the Schumann Resonance can be affected by and influence human consciousness. Therefore, a global increase in anxiety or tension could impact the Schumann Resonance. Some new-age proponents also believe that an increase in these resonant frequencies could affect humanity as a whole.